Winter is coming – inflation is fortunately cooling down, but so are the eurozone economies. The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to leave interest
The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged as both inflation and growth are falling. Keeping the door open to new hikes or a faster reduction of its balance sheet may provide comfort to ECB hawks. EUR/USD bears will likely prevail on unconvincing ECB messages, Eurozone recession risks, and America's economic advantage. rates unchanged after ten consecutive increases but probably open the door for more.
1) Core inflation is still high The bank and especially its hawkish members – German and others – will argue that its work is not done, as underlying price pressures remain elevated. The drop in energy prices is an external gift, and the ECB can still act to encourage savings and discourage lending. The Core Consumer Price Index dropped to 4.5% from a peak of 5.7%, and the next drop will be harder to achieve. Collective bargaining means services sector costs are sticky and unlikely to fall soon.
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