The euro continues to lag major central banks as far as rate hikes are concerned, leaving it vulnerable over the medium term despite warnings from ECB officials. Get your weekly Euro forecast from RichardSnowFX here:
Euro gains are likely to be temporary, especially against the dollar and other major central banks already well into the rate hiking cycle, apart from the. The BoE hiked by 25 basis points on Thursday but the threats to real incomes due to higher inflation and lower forecasted growth brandished the move as a ‘reluctant hike’ in my view.
Nevertheless, with the ECB only looking to hike rates after the end of its asset purchases in June means we are only likely to see any lift-off in the July ECB meeting. There is a long time between now and the July meeting. The will meet again in June where it is likely to raise rates by another 50 basis points while the market expects around 70 bps currently, despite Jerome Powell revealing that officials
are not"actively" considering a rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point at coming monetary policy meetings.data on Friday added to the already strong labor market - which Fed officials often make reference to when promoting rate hiking plans.Euro specific scheduled risk events are light next week with the euro zone ZEW economic sentiment index set for Tuesday after a very pessimistic print regarding the state of the economy in April.
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