EUR/USD is carving out the risk of an imminent downside breakout, US yields rocket to the moon (and back?) – by fx_ross EURUSD DollarIndex Fed BOJ
In trade on Thursday, the US dollar found some relief on the comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker who said the central bank is not done with raising its short-term rate target amid very high levels of inflation. His most hawkish of remarks sent yields to fresh cycle highs, the strongest in a decade. He said the has made disappointing progress at lower inflation and added that inflation in 2023 would fall to around 4% and 2.
As for events on the week and today's session, a spate of mixed quarterly corporate results and economicprovided some evidence of an economic slowdown, but a dip in jobless claims showed the Fed's aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes has had little effect on the tight US labour market.
The confluence of the bullish flag pattern and W-formation, with the correction, supported the neckline meeting a 50% mean reversion and trendline likely give fuel for the bulls.We have seen three pushes into the topside of the coil and a subsequent blow-off into longs with perhaps more of a long squeeze to play out before a correction. This will put the 0.9780/75 under pressure which guards the 0.9750 support block and 0.97 the figure below there.
However, risks to the bearish thesis may lie in the hands of the Bank of Japan as the threat of intervention, by selling the US dollar and buying the yen, guarding the 150.00s area. This could have widespread
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