EUR/USD: A fall in towards the year’s low above 1.05 would not be unreasonable – SocGen EURUSD ECB Fed UnitedStates Banks
EUR/USD has continued to track short-term rates, which now discounts the same ECB-Fed rate differential in December 2023 as when we were heading into the US regional bank crisis in March. On that basis alone, a fall in EUR/USD towards the year’s low above 1.05 wouldn’t be unreasonable, and only a change in the outlook for Fed and/or ECB rate prospects can turn the trend around.
The economy is slowing, the Fed is near the end of its hiking cycle, and neither the global energy backdrop nor the US balance of payments is a supportive factor anymore. So, we’ll wait for a better chance to buy the EUR.Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets.
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