Stifel’s Barry Bannister pushes his 4,400 target for the S&P 500 to April 2024 from year-end 2023
A Wall Street strategist who foresaw the U.S. stock-market rally in the first half of the year now sees stocks treading water through the end of 2023, unlikely to extend the previous momentum until at least April 2024.
Bannister was one of the few Wall Street strategists who correctly anticipated the U.S. stock-market rally in the first half of 2023. He also said economic risk for equities will rise in late 2023 as stock gains would stall in the second half of the year. He set his 4,400 year-end target for the S&P 500 in May, a roughly 4.3% advance from Monday’s close of 4,217.04, according to FactSet data.
Meanwhile, Bannister thinks the key 10-year U.S. Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y will peak around 5% in the current cycle, but he projects a “normalized” 10-year yield of 5% or 6% in the mid-2020s, which could put pressure on corporate earnings. Bannister also pointed to the health of the U.S. labor market as a source of economic resilience and a reason for “the Fed rate normalization,” which could tighten financial conditions and weigh on price-to-earnings ratios for stocks.
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