Energy & precious metals - weekly review and outlook
But there was a significance to the story. It was the first time since June that U.S. energy firms increased the number of rigs actively drilling for oil in the country, according to a weekly update of the rig count by oil services firm Baker Hughes.
The revisions imply that active drilling rigs were about 10% more productive in 2021–2022 than previously estimated. Such drilling-rig productivity or efficiency would offset to some extent this year’s sheer drop in the rig count. But then again, we have to consider the EIA’s explanation about the higher drilling efficiency for the remaining active wells, a phenomenon that could well challenge any argument about falling rigs.
He, however, added: “There is plenty of talk about discipline among U.S. oil producers but $87 oil has a way of eroding that.” But that may not happen this time, not with Saudi Arabia’s target of ultimately getting oil to $100 a barrel or beyond. The Saudis, who control much of the world’s oil exports, have been trying to bring oil back to triple-digit pricing since losing that advantage in August 2022, when Brent crude hovered above $105 a barrel.
“A lot more oil [is] off the market at a time when it’s clearly quite tight, albeit with a global economic outlook that is highly uncertain. Demand may still wane but traders appear to be working on the assumption of soft landings and mild recessions at worst. China is another unknown with slow and steady growth, by its standards, looking like the path ahead.”
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