Bernie Sanders is on the upswing—but Iowa is still a toss-up.
*Change based on average of two national surveys released by Reuters/Ipsos since the Jan. 14 debate compared to their last poll before the debate.We would be remiss, though if we didn’t mention former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who has also seen a 2-to-4-point uptick in his poll numbers since the last debate. In fact, he has now moved ahead of Buttigieg in our national polling average and currently sits in fourth place nationally.
Bottom line: This last batch of polls contained some pretty good news for Sanders — and in FiveThirtyEight model terms, it’s a fairly big deal that Sanders went from a 22 percent chance of winning a majority of delegates to a 26 percent chance. It’s also notable that this happened and Biden didn’tany ground. Sanders’s gains instead seem to have come at Warren’s expense, who fell from a 13 percent chance of winning a majority of delegates on Friday to an 8 percent chance on Sunday.
If you’re wondering how much you should update your priors as a result of this weekend’s flurry of polls, our best advice is this: Keep an open mind on Iowa. Things are really wide open there, and a lot could still change bothIowa but also especially after. At the same time, it does seem as if Sanders really is having a moment. The question now is whether it’ll last or if the polls will once again shift, maybe this time in Biden’s favor or Buttigieg’s — or even Warren’s or Klobuchar’s.
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