Even if there is a recession lurking, experts say it’s not necessarily true that the last person hired is the first one fired. “Recessions are often a way that employers try to strengthen themselves for the future,” said one expert.
Julian Hurst was ready for a change after more than a decade of work as a lawyer. After months of networking, the 44-year-old Austin, Texas resident pulled off a career pivot to a software startup in the legal technology sector.
Still, he said, “my optimism is a little bit dampened as result of my experience, plus what’s in the news, taken together.” “Recessions are often a way that employers try to strengthen themselves for the future,” said Erica Groshen, senior economics advisor at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations.
But there are downbeat data points. For example, Apple AAPL, +3.42% is reportedly slowing its hiring and spending plans amid the economic uncertainty, Bloomberg said last week. That’s on top of rescinded job offers at the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase COIN, +11.15%. There’s also Netflix NFLX, +6.00% trimming back its staff and other tech sector companies doing the same.“We do see some clear cooling in certain sectors in the economy.
The short, sharp COVID-19 recession and the Great Recession from 2007 to 2009 “are really poor estimators on what that theory means today, because both of those recessions were so severe, that the logic just goes out the window,” she said. Temporary jobs slipped in the preceding six months to a year before the last three recessions, excluding the COVID-19 recession, Bureau of Labor Statistics researchers said. During the Great Recession, “temps experienced a larger share of job losses — 34% decline for temps compared with 8-percent decline for all private employment and during the recovery, a larger share of the job gains—75% growth for temps, 19% growth for all private jobs,” they noted.
That’s why it’s important to focus on what you can within your professional responsibilities to enhance your job security, Frank said. “What you can control is your output from your intelligence, your work and your efforts.”
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