The picture could come into greater clarity this week when New York’s redistricting commission submits to the state legislature a second attempt to draw a map.
The jockeying in state capitals has implications not just for Democrats' uphill effort to maintain a majority in the U.S. House in this year's midterm elections. It will affect the broader balance of power in Washington and state legislatures for the remainder of the decade.
“Republicans have given themselves pretty good tsunami protection,” said Michael Li of the Brennan Center for Justice, which tracks redistricting. “But for Democrats, if it rains a little, their house is flooded.” The next and biggest opportunity for Democrats is in New York, which will test how much power Democrats are willing to give up to fight gerrymandering. Saying they wanted to take partisanship out of redistricting, Democrats there in 2014 backed a ballot measure to put the process in the hands of a bipartisan commission. But the state legislature can overrule the commission. In 2014 it was divided between Democratic and Republican control. Now Democrats have a supermajority in both houses.
That means the final outcome will inevitably favor the GOP, no matter how hard Democrats fight back, said Kimball Brace, a veteran redistricting consultant. “They're ending up still putting a Republican flavor on the overall plan,” Brace said. “This cycle has unfolded just about exactly as we expected it to — with the exception that Democrats have placed a bigger bet than I expected,” Kincaid said.
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