MLB odds, predictions, and picks for Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks on September 16. MLB free pick for Cubs-Diamondbacks.
and should be a good fade candidate. Through 21 starts this season, Hendricks is 6-7 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Those are certainly not the worst surface-level stats in the world, but his 4.08 xERA and .269 xBA suggest that further regression could be looming. Hendricks also ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in both whiff rate and K%, and that is the avenue in which we will fade the right-hander on Saturday. He gives up a lot of contact, which always makes him a volatile option.
Every game is crucial for Arizona, a team that currently holds the tiebreaker over the Cincinnati Reds for the final spot in the NL wild-card race. Hitting has been the number one factor for success this year for the Diamondbacks as they rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, and slugging.
Perhaps this lineup’s biggest advantage in the hitting department is its ability to avoid strikeouts, ranking fifth in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Saturday’s projected starting lineup, six of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 21 this season. This strikeout avoidance is likely to continue against Hendricks, a pitcher who doesn't miss many bats to speak of and whose 16.4% strikeout rate ranks among the 10 lowest in MLB among those with at least 120 innings pitched this season.
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