Trump brags that his new NAFTA deal is the most important trade agreement in U.S. history, but a congressionally mandated analysis due next month is expected to show that it'll provide only a slight boost to economic growth — or even cause a small decline
"That's not to say it's not really big for some sectors that use it a lot," Laura Baughman, president of Trade Partnership Worldwide, a Washington-based analytical firm, told POLITICO. "But overall, from the GDP side of things, it should be tiny."
Trump must make believers out of numerous Democrats, who have criticized NAFTA for the last 25 years, that its replacement would be a significant improvement over the status quo. Failure to get Congress to approve the deal, Trump's chief trade negotiator has warned, would undermine the administration’s entire trade agenda.
Part of the challenge Trump faces in trying to convince lawmakers and industry groups that the USMCA will yield big economic gains is the massive U.S. economy, which clocked in at $20.5 trillion in 2018. That makes it hard for any trade agreement to have a significant impact on overall economic growth and employment.
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