The European Union may have survived Brexit, the refugee crisis and the financial meltdown of 2008 — but don’t assume COVID-19 can’t destroy it.
That is irresponsible. The countries hit the worst by the pandemic — Italy, Spain and France — are the ones that have the least amount of fiscal breathing space, irrespective of the European Commission’s relaxation of fiscal and state aid rules on Friday.
EU countries like Spain will have a hard time absorbing the economic hit that the coronavirus will leave in its wake | Cesar Manso/AFP via Getty Imagesthat the ECB should not be “the line of first response” to the widening bond spreads on the eurozone’s periphery, a muscular pre-emptive injection of liquidity into the markets by the ECB is now the only thing that can stop the gradual build-up of panic in the financial sector and cushion the impact the pandemic is having on nominal spending.
The real human cost of the pandemic combined with popular anxieties and a sense — justified or not — that European institutions are not helping can easily add to a potent centrifugal force. That will be especially true if Italians reach the conclusion that a devaluation of their currency is their only possible source of economic relief.
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