The latest evidence of economic strength makes it all but certain that the Fed will resume its interest rate hikes later this month after having ended a streak of 10 rate increases intended to slow inflation.
The pace of hiring by businesses and government agencies in June — 209,000 added jobs — was the smallest monthly gain in 2 1/2 years. Yet it was still a healthy increase, enough to reduce the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.6%, barely above a half-century low. And it amounted to further evidence of an economy that has defied persistent forecasts of a recession.
Several factors, though, are countering those headwinds and helping perpetuate hiring, which typically boosts consumer spending and propels the economy. Construction companies are also benefiting from ongoing infrastructure spending by the Biden administration, and so are other industries. He estimates that his company has raised salaries 10%-15% just from a year ago to try to attract more job seekers.
Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic Policy Research, noted that excluding government hiring, private-sector job gains totaled 149,000 in June, a pace that does not necessarily point to an overheating economy that would alarm the Fed.The government’s report Friday also showed that the economy gained 110,000 fewer jobs in April and May than it had previously estimated.
Higher inflation and an uncertain economic outlook appear to be drawing more people into the workforce. The proportion of Americans ages 25 through 54 — a category that filters out most students and retirees — who are working rose to 80.9% in June, above the pre-pandemic peak and the highest level in 22 years.
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