With markets reeling from recession fears, the world is watching the so far resilient U.S. consumer, now in the strongest position since before the financial crisis.
yield. That is a widely watched recession signal, with the 10-year, reflecting a flight to safety and concern about the economy longer term, and the 2-year slightly higher, more an indication of where the Fed is currently targeting short-term interest rates.
"The early litmus test as to whether that's good or bad are the mortgage applications," said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies. "The refinancings support the balance sheets of households. It's like a tax break. And the purchase apps rising provides support for housing."rushed to lock in new low rates. Interest on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.93% and falling.
"Retail sales take on a lot more significant than what would normally be the case" on Thursday, LaVorgna said. "The three-month rate of change in retail control is over 7.4%." That is at the high end of a recent range in control sales, which do not include autos, gasoline or building materials. President Donald Trump Tuesday said he would hold off on implementing new 10% tariffs on many consumer goods included in the $300 billion in Chinese goods he had originally targeted for Sept. 1. Trump has delayed the tariffs until mid-December, and he said he did not want them to impact the Christmas holiday season.that President Donald Trump delayed tariffs in part to avoid a recession during the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
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