The fiscal stimulus is impressive, but America may need another one before too long
housebound and socially distanced, the signs of a contraction are apparent. The 18th Street corridor of Adams Morgan, a typically bustling stretch of restaurants and shops in Washington,, is shuttered—closed as part of the nationwide effort to contain the epidemic of covid-19 that had, as of March 25th, infected 65,778 Americans and killed 942, according to Johns Hopkins University. One fledgling business—a new bar called Death Punch—never managed to open its doors.
Whole industries rely on congregating people. So too, unfortunately, does the virus. Twelve states have ordered all non-essential businesses closed. Seventeen states, covering half the country’s population, have urged residents to stay at home. Many white-collar tasks can just about be performed remotely. But cruelly, those likeliest to lose income or their jobs are in more precarious, less well-paid industries—restaurant staff , retailers or hotel workers .
A similarly gargantuan wad of cash—$250bn—will be spent on a less targeted scheme, sending cheques to Americans direct from Uncle Sam. Below some generous income thresholds every family can expect $1,200 per adult and $500 per child. This is the best version of a cash transfer that was proposed. Previously the White House had pushed the idea of a payroll-tax holiday; an early version of the stimulus bill ignored people who did not file taxes.
This is a more complicated idea than those devised by European finance ministers facing down the pandemic. Rishi Sunak, the British chancellor, pledged to pay up to 80% of wages for furloughed workers; the Danish government could pay up to 90% of the costs. The added hurdle in America may mean that the most sophisticated operations get the grant-loans , while mom-and-pop operations languish. It may also mean that even more money will be needed.
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