American administration and intelligence officials are concerned that Israel is planning a ground incursion into Lebanon that could be launched in the late spring or early summer if diplomatic efforts fail to push Hezbollah back from the northern border with Israel, senior administrations officials and officials familiar with the intelligence say.
While a final Israeli decision has yet to be made, the worry is acute enough inside the Biden administration that the prospect of an incursion has made its way into intelligence briefings for senior administration officials, according to one person who received a briefing and was told an operation could happen early summer. “We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months,” one senior Biden administration official said.
“If Amos were to successfully negotiate a standoff arrangement, then the probability of a military operation later this year would decline considerably,” the first administration official said. If Hezbollah is pushed back about 10 kilometers, that would take out some of the shorter-range munitions they’ve been using against Israel, the official added.
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