One Concacaf World Cup qualifying window remains. So what would it take for all of the teams still alive to reach Qatar, and just how big of a difference is there in the USMNT's outlook depending on how the last home match vs. Panama goes?
As coach Gregg Berhalter said Wednesday night in his postmatch remarks, the blueprint all along—and it’s been like this for decades—is to win at home and try to nick points on the road to get to where you want to be. As long as that is adhered to, the U.S. will be fine.Mexico has looked all out of sorts and sluggish under Tata Martino—and is sweating out a new injury to Chucky Lozano—but that hasn’t stopped El Tri from reaching its ultimate target destination. Like the U.S.
A win there, coupled with a Panama loss to Honduras and a Costa Rica loss or draw vs. Canada, and Mexico would be in with two games to spare. If the U.S. and Mexico draw and both go to 22 points and if Panama were to beat Honduras, that would make things awfully tight for an extra three days, with just two points separating Panama from the automatic-qualifying pack. Mexico would then,, become fans of the U.S. vs. Panama, even though Martino’s side would still have everything in its control.
With matches at Honduras and vs. El Salvador to wrap up, the schedule is very much in Mexico’s favor as opposed to earlier in the Octagonal, when it had four consecutive road matches, including two straight at the U.S. and at Canada.A valiant effort that ended in defeat in Mexico City likely ruined Panama’s chances of automatic qualification. A win in Orlando vs. the U.S.
In terms of finishing fourth, though, it just needs to have a window that’s equal to or better than Costa Rica’s. Should Costa Rica lose to Canada and Panama beat Honduras in the first match of the window, that would create a four-point separation with two matches to play. Panama's last two games are daunting and could open the door for Los Ticos to sneak in, but as mentioned above, if Canada is already qualified, Herdman’s approach for the finale could be tweaked.
Another factor that could come into play is goal differential. Both Panama and Costa Rica are at +1, so it's quite possible that the best race remaining in Concacaf is the fight for fourth. Either side would take its chances against Oceania’s champion. If recent history is any indication, it’ll be a New Zealand team that, while capable and talented enough, hasn’t played a competitive match in a FIFA competition since the World Cup qualifying playoff it lost to Peru in 2017.
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