U.S. oil drilling activity has begun to decline in response to the downturn in prices since the middle of 2022 - which will translate into slower production growth throughout the rest of 2023 and into 2024.
When prices fall, the lag reflects time needed to confirm the trend, finish part-drilled wells, drill wells already under contract, and idle unneeded rigs.In this instance, WTI futures peaked at the start of June 2022, when they were more than 70% higher than at the same time a year before.
Since June 2022, however, prices have generally retreated, which has been reflected in a gradual turnover in drilling activity rates. Once drilling is finished, there is a further delay of six months on average for casing, pressure pumping, installation of surface equipment, flow testing, linking up to the pipeline network and entering commercial production.
The Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. production will be only 340,000 barrels per day higher in December 2023 than it was in December 2022.
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