Europe needs to put a smaller-than-average volume of gas into storage this year after a mild winter left the region with record high inventories.
The smaller refill requirement is weighing down prices for deliveries this summer, but because limited storage is an imperfect replacement for imports, prices will probably still need to be high next winter to restrain consumption.
Over the last ten years, storage increased by an average of +612 TWh from April 1 to the post-summer peak, with annual accumulations ranging from +468 TWh to +779 TWh . Europe’s storage capacity limit implies it only has room to add one of the smallest volumes of gas in the last ten years.Prices and spreads are now moving decisively to limit the amount of gas added to storage this summer.
Given the limited volume of gas that can be stored, however, high prices will still probably be needed to encourage careful consumption during the winter of 2023/24. The weakening spread reflects both the increasing abundance of inventories and the rising cost of adding more to them given the shortage of storage space.In the short term, cold weather at the start of April has delayed the onset of refilling and eased some concerns about capacity running out.
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