Classic Megaproject Early Mistakes Will Create A Fiscal Disaster For Netherlands Nuclear
, has a chart of project categories by least to most likely to meet cost projections, with nuclear construction as 23rd of 25 categories of over 16,000 megaprojects. That was the first publication of the breakdown, and he and his team have subsequently provided an updated version with numbers, in worst to best order.
There’s also strong evidence of the optimism bias, as going from no nuclear construction industry to two working reactors in 13 years is radically unlikely, as is the €5 billion price tag. The over confidence bias is clearly in evidence. Anyone looking at the cost and schedule overruns globally in nuclear vs where the Netherlands is starting would not be considering it as the basis for 13% of grid decarbonization in any commitments.
The base-rate fallacy is evident as well. It’s the tendency to ignore generic base-rate information and focus on specific information pertaining to a certain case or small sample. Using Flyvbjerg’s reference class forecasting estimation methodology would look at as complete a list of all nuclear generation projects as it was possible to get, use the median of schedule and budget as the basis for an estimate, and use the average statistical deviance from the mean to inform contingency planning.
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