A violent civil war between the China-backed military junta ruling Myanmar and a patchwork of pro-democracy rebels in the Southeast Asian nation is not getting much attention in the West, but is increasingly viewed by China’s leadership as a strategic “Cold War” frontline in its global competition with the United States.
The Biden administration is slow-pedaling in response, according to regional analysts, who say the White House lacks a clear strategy for halting Beijing’s growing influence in Myanmar, a vital land bridge between China and the Indian Ocean.
Beijing’s increased focus contrasts with the administration’s “traditional view of Myanmar as strategically unimportant,” said Mr. Ye Myo Hein, who is pressing U.S. officials to “develop a clear strategy to enhance [Washington’s] strategic influence in the country.” A recent Peace Research Institute Oslo report said at least 6,000 civilians have been killed since 2021, with more than a million people internally displaced.The conflict has spiraled since a military coup overthrew Myanmar’s elected civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and head of the country’s largest political party. Despite complaints about her government before it was ousted, Myanmar under Ms. Suu Kyi was well regarded by U.S.
But dynamics within the insurgency are murky, particularly amid rebel efforts to lure some sectors of the military to shift allegiance and switch to the side of the pro-democracy movement. The language notably also authorized funding for “non-lethal assistance” for armed PDF rebels in Myanmar, as well as “technical” support for them and for the broader pro-democracy movement.
“The United States will not waver in its support for the people of Burma as they seek peace, justice, and a genuine democratic future for their country,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said upon targeting the banks on June 21.The group Justice for Myanmar praised the financial sanctions, but asserted that for sanctions to be effective, “far more needs to be done to systematically target the junta’s financial and arms procurement networks.
An analysis by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that while many multinational corporations withdrew from Myanmar following the 2021 military coup, the Chinese state mining company Wanbao has continued to invest in the country.
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