GDP growth could be as low as half the official number and that markets are likely overestimating China’s importance for the global economy.
Based on the performance of countries comparable to China, the latter's GDP growth could be as low as half the official number. China stands out as having as having a growth rate much above that of comparable middle-income countries. We can reasonably doubt China's own figures. Assuming that, thanks to Chinese exceptionalism, the country's productivity grows 1.5 times faster than in comparable countries, yearly trend growth in China would be about 3.5%.
Based on the performance of countries comparable to China, the latter's GDP growth could be as low as half the official number. China stands out as having as having a growth rate much above that of comparable middle-income countries. We can reasonably doubt China's own figures. Assuming that, thanks to Chinese exceptionalism, the country's productivity grows 1.5 times faster than in comparable countries, yearly trend growth in China would be about 3.5%.
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