China’s population likely started shrinking last year for the first time in decades, experts say, a significant milestone that will have long-term repercussions for the economy.
The government’s official data for total number of births in 2022—expected to be released next week—will probably show a record low of 10 million, according to independent demographer He Yafu.
The upshot is that China’s economy may struggle to overtake the US in size and it could lose its status as the world’s most populous country to India this year. “The measures taken to boost birth rates have been far too little and too late, and were completely overwhelmed by the impact of Covid Zero on birth rates,” said Christopher Beddor, deputy China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics.
The fall in the working-age population will be even greater: That group will slump to about 650 million people in 2050, a drop of about 260 million from 2020, according to Bloomberg Economics. “Usually population growth would hover around zero for a few years before one can conclude that a country has entered the phase of population contraction,” he added.
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