China's house prices are expected to grow just 3.1% next year, the lowest o...
BEIJING - China’s house prices are expected to grow just 3.1% next year, the lowest over a calendar year since 2015, a Reuters poll showed, with tightening policies continuing to cool the market even as some easing is expected to prevent a sharp slowing.
But policymakers have also been walking a tightrope, careful not to sink the market entirely - a crucial growth driver directly impacting more than 40 industries - as the economy is also dragged by an ailing manufacturing sector and flagging consumer confidence amid a trade war with the United States.
The estimated residential property price rise of 3.1% in December 2020 from a year earlier, according to the poll of 10 property analysts and economists, would be the slowest for a calendar year since 2015, when it grew 1.8%. Nation-wide property sales are expected to contract by 3% in 2020, the Reuters survey showed. Over half of the analysts surveyed expect the current downturn to last another one to two years.
China’s central bank lowered the five-year LPR CNYLPR5Y=CFXS rate - which is used to price housing mortgages - for the first time last week, although the 5 basis points cut was largely seen as marginal and did not represent a change in the tightening bias.While most of the analysts surveyed are forecasting a further slowdown in the property market next year, they also expected most of the smaller cities to relax some purchase restrictions, likely to provide a floor for the sector.
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