China may be trying to warn Taiwanese voters of what could happen if they re-elect an anti-China politician
of July 31st youngsters in dozens of Chinese cities raced to government offices, pursuing a precious commodity. Earlier that day the authorities had announced that from midnight they would no longer issue the passes that allow mainland tourists to visit Taiwan independently, without having to join a tour. A 25-year-old newlywed from the eastern province of Zhejiang, who uses the nickname Yuyi, says she got a permit just before the cut-off.
China has long used carrots and sticks to persuade Taiwan’s people to accept its demand for “peaceful reunification”. But the sudden suspension of the solo-travel programme, launched eight years ago, was still a surprise. A spokesperson for China’s government blamed Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party , which abhors the idea of unification. He said it had “incited hostility towards the mainland”.
All this will leave a mark, but it is no crushing blow. Taiwan is much less reliant on mainland tourists than it was five years ago, when they made up two-fifths of all visitors. That is in part because of restrictions China began imposing on group travel shortly before Ms Tsai’s inauguration in 2016. It is also because Taiwan has lately pushed hard to attract visitors from elsewhere. Tourist arrivals reached a record 11.
China is angry with Ms Tsai for rejecting its overtures, and with America for being nice to her. It complained bitterly about her two recent stopovers in America, where she spoke at Columbia University and hobnobbed with foreign diplomats. It raged about the Trump administration’s decision last month to approve a long-negotiated arms deal with Taiwan worth about $2.2bn. But it is probably most annoyed by Ms Tsai’s loud support in recent weeks for anti-government protesters in Hong Kong.
By stemming the flow of tourists, China may be trying to warn Taiwanese voters of what could happen if they re-elect Ms Tsai and support other politicians like her in presidential and legislative elections in January—Taiwan’s economy is heavily reliant on China’s. The biggest opposition party, the Kuomintang , supports friendlier ties with the mainland and made big gains in regional elections last November. China’s leaders would like it to vanquish thein next year’s polls.
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