TAIPEI, Taiwan — Thousands of miles from the cities that Russia is bombing in Ukraine, China has been studying the war. In an indirect struggle between two superpowers on the other side of the world, Beijing sees a source of invaluable lessons on weapons, troop power, intelligence and deterrence that can help it prepare for potential wars of its own. In particular, Chinese military analysts have scrutinized the fighting for innovations and tactics that could help in a possible clash over Taiwan,
Taiwanese military personnel participate in an amphibious landing as part of military exercises in Pingtung, Taiwan on July 28, 2022.
— With an eye on China’s development of hypersonic missiles, which can be highly maneuverable in flight, they have analyzed how Russia used these weapons to destroy an ammunition bunker, a fuel depot and other targets. “The shortcomings that have been exposed in the Russian military’s logistics and supplies should be a focus for us,” said an article in a magazine published by China’s agency for developing major military technology. It said that China had to prepare for similar challenges “when we consider future sea crossings, the seizure of islands” and other hazard-filled operations — an implicit reference to taking Taiwan.
China is “close to this war in a way that wasn’t true of the Iraq or even Afghanistan wars,” said Lyle J. Goldstein, an expert at Defense Priorities, a think tank in Washington, who has been studying Chinese assessments of the war in Ukraine. “They see themselves potentially in Russia’s shoes in more or less going to war against America.”
More broadly, Russia’s troubles in Ukraine appear to have hardened official Chinese views that Beijing, like Moscow, is the focus of a U.S.-led campaign of “hybrid warfare” that includes economic sanctions, technological bans, information campaigns and cyberattacks. Another fixation of Chinese military analysts has been Ukraine’s use of Starlink, the satellite service operated by SpaceX, with some suggesting that Beijing should establish a similar system of its own.
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