CEOs still consider the end to an expansion that has been the longest in U.S. history, which has spread around the globe, to be the biggest fear in 2020, according to the Conference Board's CEO Challenge survey released Monday.
"Just two years ago, global recession was barely on the minds of CEOs in our survey. One real risk of this recession mindset is that it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy," the survey's authors said in a summary.
The recession fears come amid "continued uncertainty around global trade, increasing competition, global political instability, and tightening labor markets — which, in themselves, can be significant restraints on business growth." Those concerns persisted in 2019 as the U.S. and China continued their trade war and geopolitical issues such as Brexit and a toxic climate in Washington contributed to a volatile climate. Recession fears peaked in late summer asHowever, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a strong labor market and a buoyant consumer have helped quell those concerns —Indeed, Conference Board officials said they expect the outlook to get better.
"The ongoing concerns about recession risk among business leaders reflect the slowing economy of the past year and the uncertainties about the outcome of the trade disputes and other policy concerns," Bart van Ark, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement.
Economists have been warning about a likely slowdown, particularly in the U.S. where fiscal stimulus from the 2017 tax bill is expected to wear off. Still, the International Monetary Fund projects U.S. GDP to grow at a 1.9% rate in 2020, and global growth to clock in at 3.5%.
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