In the run-up to the final major of 2019 all eyes have focused on Rory McIlroy, the world’s third-ranked player
in front of all my friends and family,” he said last month. “Would it be my most special win? 100 percent.”Mr McIlroy’s career arc is hard to characterise in a simple narrative. From his first professional win in the Dubai Desert Classic in 2009 at the age of 19 up to his back-to-back major victories in the Open Championship and PGA Championship in 2014, Mr McIlroy looked like the clear heir to Mr Woods as golf’s emblematic superstar.
Mr McIlroy did suffer a brief slump from late 2017 to the end of 2018. But he has returned with a vengeance this year, winning two of the 14 tournaments he has entered and finishing among the top ten in nine more. Bettors seem unconcerned by his long drought in major tournaments, and seem to be pricing in a sizeable home-course advantage for him at Royal Portrush.
In relative terms as well as absolute ones, however, the case for Mr McIlroy as clearly superior to Mr Johnson is hard to make. It is Mr Johnson who finished second in two of the past three majors, and whose overall average scores in recent years tower above those of his closest competitors, including Mr McIlroy’s.
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