COMMENTARY: 'The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated [...] But what if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?' writes NYT columnist Bret Stephens.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with leaders of the State Duma, the Lower House of the Russian Parliament, Feb. 17, 2021.The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.
Several analysts have compared Putin to a cornered rat, more dangerous now that he’s no longer in control of events. They want to give him a safe way out of the predicament he allegedly created for himself. Hence the almost universal scorn poured on Joe Biden for saying in Poland, “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power.”
The possibility is suggested in a powerful reminiscence from The New York Times’ Carlotta Gall of her experience covering Russia’s siege of Grozny, during the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early phases of the war, motivated Chechen fighters wiped out a Russian armored brigade, stunning Moscow. The Russians regrouped and wiped out Grozny from afar, using artillery and air power.
Combine that with Russia’s previous territorial seizures in Crimea and the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk , as well as Putin’s bid to control most or all of Ukraine’s coastline, and the shape of Putin’s ambitions become clear. He’s less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than he is in securing Russia’s energy dominance.
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