Breakingviews - Resolving Credit Suisse: an alternative history

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Breakingviews - Resolving Credit Suisse: an alternative history
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From Breakingviews - Resolving Credit Suisse: an alternative history

, and about half of what Credit Suisse itself reported in 2015. Over 80% of Credit Suisse’s derivatives are interest-rate products, which are increasingly cleared through central counterparties, limiting the contagion if a firm goes under.The following morning Angehrn explains how a Credit Suisse resolution will work. FINMA will wipe out the bank’s existing shares and hybrid debt instruments, and then convert the $64 billion of bail-in bonds to ordinary shares.

Next will come a restructuring designed to keep any viable bits of the bank going and wind down the rest. Credit Suisse’s Swiss unit will be carved out and run as a separate entity. The investment bank will be closed. JPMorgan analysts had recently put the cost of doing so at roughly $11 billion. Meanwhile FINMA will shop Credit Suisse’s asset-management unit around to possible suitors.

The rest of the world is worried. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in calls with Keller-Sutter, wonders whether bailing in the bonds and offering an SNB backstop will accelerate the bank run, rather than end it. Her opposite number in France, Bruno Le Maire, is more forthright: nationalise it today, or sell it to UBS, he advises. This is not the time for a financial experiment.and indicators of financial stress are flashing amber. Still, she wonders if the warnings are overblown.

The finance minister knows this decision will define her career. Will she go down in history as the person who started the great banking crisis of 2023? Or will Switzerland become the first country to show it’s possible to resolve a systemically important bank? Keller-Sutter takes a deep breath as she picks up the phone to update Swiss President Alain Berset: Credit Suisse is going into resolution.We’ll never know what would have happened if Swiss policymakers had followed this path.

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