A year after Putin invaded Ukraine, Europe seems destined for further economic decoupling from Russia. But extra defence spending and rebuilding costs will be minor compared to a scenario where Moscow crushes Kyiv, says Hugodixon
Russia’s war economy is increasingly churning out tanks, missiles, ammunition and planes. The Kremlin, whose budget deficit soared tolast month, will soon find it impossible to shield ordinary Russians from these costs. The population will pay with higher taxes, lower welfare spending or inflation. Meanwhile, Putin will throw more young soldiers at Ukraine’s battle lines.
higher than two years ago. This has boosted inflation and undermined industrial competitiveness. Meanwhile, by shunning Russian oil, Europe is paying more for crude imports while China and India buy the black stuff at a discount.sanctions on Russia. European companies see less benefit in doing business in the country and are under pressure from customers, employees and shareholders to disengage.The other big question is what happens if Putin dies or is pushed out.
Some hope Russia can become democratic under its own steam, just as so-called “coloured revolutions” brought change to former Soviet states like Ukraine and Georgia. However, that doesn’t seem likely given the Kremlin’s capacity to terrorise its own people.
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