Bank investors and analysts often like to say that BNP Paribas is the closest Europe has to a JPMorgan , the goliath of U.S. banking that just bought First Republic Bank . The 70 billion euro French lender’s first-quarter results, released on Wednesday, only partially bear that out.
, whose deposits fell by 4.7% over the same period. A person familiar with the matter told Breakingviews that BNP let yield-seeking money leave earlier in the quarter, only to see much of the departed deposits flow back again after the March chaos. That sounds a lot like what happened with Jamie Dimon’s bank, whichOn the returns side, however, Bonnafé is no Dimon.
JPMorgan will earn a 19% return on tangible equity this year, using Visible Alpha consensus data, which is good even for a U.S. bank. BNP will hit 11%, brokers reckon on average. Analysts also expect Bonnafé to miss a 12% 2025 target by about 1 percentage point. There’s no shame in losing to a bigger stateside rival on returns, but BNP also risks falling behind regional peers. Banco Santander
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