Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has won a second term in office after a contentious Nigerian election this weekend.
Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has won a second term in office after a contentious Nigerian election this weekend, but the opposition are refusing to accept the outcome and a period of uncertainty and unrest is expected to follow. That could impact the OPEC member's oil production, according to RBC Capital Markets' Global Head of Commodity Strategy Helima Croft.
INEC, which made the decision to postpone the election for a week due to operation and logistical challenges, said that it had been made aware of irregularities prior to the election — although it has itself been the target of accusations from both the main parties, accusing it of trying to influence the result in favor of the other. Tweet:
Nigeria is a significant oil and gas producer — the largest in Africa — and has the highest output among OPEC's African members, producing almost 1.8 million barrels a day in January, according to the latest data from OPEC. Nigeria is seen as one of the"fragile five" members of OPEC, however because its oil-rich Niger Delta region in the south of the country has been plagued with long-running unrest and disruption to, and sabotage of, its oil production from militant groups.
What's more, the Niger Delta region is a stronghold for the opposition PDP and violence in the region ahead of the election was pronounced with several deaths, including that of one of the electoral commission's staff who was reportedly shot on election day. Any disruption to its oil sector could have an impact on wider oil markets and price volatility, especially with output lower from Venezuela and Iran.
With the PDP rejecting the results and continuing questions about the credibility of the polls, RBC's Croft and her team said they believe there is a high risk of further bloodshed in the coming weeks, especially in Nigeria's oil region.
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