If it can get its socioeconomic act together, Nigeria may be the next global power and the first in the Southern Hemisphere.
Many of the issues, and much of the gridlock, come back to oil. Roughly $100 million worth of oil pours out of the ground each day. Spread across that huge population, that's only about 50 cents per person per day. That's not enough to make everyone rich, but more than enough to make some very rich. It's estimated that 80 percent of the proceeds from oil has gone to 1 percent of the population.
Nigeria's numbers today are surprisingly close to where China's were before reform. In 1978, China's poverty rate was 55 percent, almost identical to the most recent statistics for Nigeria. And adult literacy in China was only 65 percent, comparable to Nigeria's 62 percent. Today, China's poverty rate is almost zero, and literacy is at 97 percent.
Of course, like China in 1978 and India in 1990, Nigeria has in place a set of economic policies that stifle innovation and efficiency. The government provides too much control and not enough support, such as infrastructure and basic services. One CEO says off the record,"Businesses pray to not be noticed by the government." Another describes a"continuous parade of government types coming through my office trying to shake me down.
Most are hastily shot and low-budget—some by what actor and director Ali Nuhu calls"roadside filmmakers." But Nigeria also has an upmarket segment. The film Lionheart was entered this year for an Oscar for best foreign film, before being disqualified for having too much English dialogue. The irony, of course, is that Nigerians speak English.
No one sits in Nigeria. It's impossible to walk down the street without being approached by someone selling something, from peanuts to windshield wipers to an on-the-spot manicure. In Kaduna, the governor has converted a section of the market into a"recycling program" to provide employment for youth.
"Right now, Nigeria is seen as just too hard, but there's a wall of money waiting to come in if it gets it right," Aiyesimoju says. According to Orji, Nigeria is"just a few tweaks away" from being an attractive place for investors."Look at South Korea," he says."All it took was changing one thing—the landholding law."
Politicians often exploit religion, both to stir up support for themselves and to distract voters from issues like the economy. Nigeria prides itself on being the most religious nation on earth. In 2014, a man was sent to a mental institution for admitting to being an atheist. Nigeria has a raft of traditional religions, like Islam, Protestant Christianity and Catholicism. It also has a booming"prosperity gospel" sector complete with rock star pastors who provide salvation-tainment.
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