Market Analysis by Dr. Arnout ter Schure covering: Bitcoin Futures CME, Bitcoin. Read Dr. Arnout ter Schure 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
ideal target zone is between $27300-28100, which fits well with the “$27750-29000” zone we already forecasted in June.Everything remained on track until BTC dropped below the lower end of support on August 17 and has yet to recover back above it. Moreover, now Bitcoin is challenging its June lows, which means our more immediate Bullish thesis is being severely challenged and we must concede to the possibilities of several other options. These are presented in Figures 1, 2, and 3 below.
Meanwhile, we recognize that we like to always be right about the financial markets and assets' next move. But that is unrealistic, and we are humble, flexible, and open-minded to know our forecast is wrong when an invalidation level is reached. Trading is no different, while we can only control our entry, exit, and risk; we cannot control the outcome of a trade, price movement, and other participants.
A 2nd wave comprises three waves: W-a, -b, and -c. In this case, black W-a is about to complete in a five-wave sequence around $25-24.5K, and then we can start to look for a decent rally back to $29.5-30.5 zone for black W-b, which will subdivide into W-a, -b, and -c. TBD how exactly. From there, black W-c can kick in, ideally targeting $19-23K, which matches well with the 50-76% retrace zone typical for a 2nd wave.
Thus, both options tell us to look for a low soon at around the same price levels and then a rally. One rally will just be “a bounce” , whereas the other is a more sustainable intermediate-term rally . How will we eventually know the difference between the two? Simple. Back above $30.5K, and the odds increase the 2nd option is in play, with confirmation above $31.5K. If Bitcoins stalls at around $30.0+/-0.5K and then drops below current levels option 1 is operable.
The alternative is presented in Figure 3 below. This 3rd option suggests the November ‘22 to July ‘23 rally was a counter-trend rally of the November ’21 to November ‘22 Bear market, which is now to resume. BTC is now in the starting gates of the third and last leg lower of that Bear market: Blue W-C, which will subdivide into five smaller waves: black W-1 through 5. Like options 1 and 2 we should soon see a bounce , from around $24.0+/-0.5K to ~$29.-+1.
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