The odds are overwhelming — above 80% — that bitcoin will crash in coming months, MktwHulbert says
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — The odds are overwhelming — above 80% — that bitcoin will crash in coming months.
This prediction has nothing to do with the particulars of bitcoin BTCUSD, -16.48% I hasten to add. It might be, as this cryptocurrency’s true believers insist, that it will eventually dominate the monetary system, replacing gold as well as paper currencies as both a means of exchange and a store of value. But even if that turns out to be true, bitcoin would still be vulnerable to a crash.
To be sure, you could argue that the Harvard study doesn’t apply to bitcoin, since the researchers focused on the stock market rather than cryptocurrencies. But I’m not so sure. The researchers reached their conclusion after studying nearly a century of data in both the U.S. and foreign stock markets. Their conclusions were broadly similar regardless of the time period or the country.
It’s also worth mentioning that the researchers were unable to find any fundamental factors that increased or decreased the odds of a crash. That’s relevant to bitcoin, since many of its devotees believe that it is unique and that historical precedents don’t apply. Those devotees would do well to remember that every prior bubble was also accompanied by similar claims of historical uniqueness.
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