The price of bitcoin has touched a new cycle high around $21,550, with this morning's soft economic numbers providing the latest fuel to the rally. SteveAlpher reports
Behind today's advance were this morning's larger than expected decline in the Producer Price Index for December combined with a bigger than forecast drop in December retail sales.
The PPI fell 0.5% in December, bringing the year-over-year rate down to 6.2% versus 7.3% previously. Market expectations had been for just 0.1% dip in December and a year-over-pace of 6.8%. The core PPI for December fell 0.1%, in line with forecasts, but the year-over-year rate fell to 5.5% versus expectations for 5.7%.
December retail sales fell 1.1% versus forecasts for just a 0.8% decline. Combined with a drop of 1% in November, this marks the first back-to-back 1%+ declines in monthly retail sales since the pandemic panic. A check of traditional markets finds the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield down a whopping 16 basis points to 3.39%, its lowest since mid-September, and well below the current Fed Funds rate target of 4.25-4.5%. This sort of"inversion" has typically been an excellent forecaster of a recession, or at least a sizable economic slowdown. Should that come to pass, it would surely mean easier monetary policy than currently forecast, a possible boon to risk assets, including bitcoin.
Trading in the low-$21,000 area in early November 2022, bitcoin had plunged nearly all the way down to $15,000 later that month in wake of the FTX bankruptcy. The crypto then remained stuck close to $16,500 for several weeks before embarking on this current rally in early 2023.
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