Big Splash by Novartis Won’t Break Investors’ Hearts

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Big Splash by Novartis Won’t Break Investors’ Hearts
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Heard on the Street: Novartis's deal to acquire Medicines Co. is a calculated risk worth taking

By Charley Grant Nov. 25, 2019 1:23 pm ET There is a method to the madness of Novartis NVS 0.91% chief executive Vas Narasimhan’s deal strategy.

The spending spree does come with obvious risks, yet Novartis shares rallied Monday, because the price tag for Medicines looks better in the proper context. High cholesterol is a leading cause of heart disease, and obesity is on the rise across the developed world. The drug industry has spent more heavily in categories like oncology or rare diseases than on cardiovascular illnesses. New commercial opportunities are therefore scarce.

Pricing the drug carefully to limit insurer pushback will be important, but there is blockbuster potential. Analysts expect nearly $1 billion in sales for inclisiran by 2023, according to FactSet. That market could significantly expand in coming years. A long-term study showing patient health outcomes on the drug is due in 2024 which could expand the pool of eligible patients.

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