President Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan is contributing to elevated inflation but it isn't expected to overheat the economy, a new research paper from the San Francisco Federal Reserve concludes.
The package signed into law in March included stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, small business loans, aid to state and local governments and relief for airlines designed to speed up the economic recovery following Covid-19 shutdowns. A record number of Americans are quitting their jobsSeven months later, economists are still debating whether the US economy really needed that much support, given that the recovery was already underway.
5 job vacancies per unemployed person, and bottomed out during the Great Recession that began in late 2007 when there were just 0.15 vacancies per unemployed person. In August, this ratio hit 1.25, more than twice the historical average of 0.6%, the paper said. The economists estimate that the American Rescue Plan will have pushed the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio up by 0.6 units in 2021 and by nearly 0.5 by the end of 2022.
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