The unusual effects of the pandemic made surging inflation difficult to diagnose, writes former Fed Chair Ben S. Bernanke in a commentary essay.
About the author: Ben S. Bernanke was chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System from February 2006 through January 2014.
First, the Federal Open Market Committee agreed to try to make up for past undershoots of the inflation target. If inflation had been below 2% for a while, as had been the case for much of the past decade, the FOMC would compensate by allowing inflation to run “moderately above 2% for some time.” The goal was to demonstrate that the target is truly symmetric, with no tendency for inflation to remain either below or above target for long periods.
How did this happen? Over the course of last year, the FOMC had become increasingly worried about inflation. But policy makers did not announce an end to their securities-purchase program until November, and the first rate hike—of a quarter point—did not come until this March. In May, the FOMC raised its policy rate an additional half-percentage point and announced a plan to reduce the size of its securities holdings.
In addition, the FOMC also saw the uptick in inflation in the middle of 2021—inflation ex food and energy prices was running at about 3.5% over the summer—as largely reflecting temporary forces related to the reopening of the economy. These included the reversal of price declines in sectors hit hard during the pandemic , supply-chain bottlenecks, and a sharp shift in consumer spending away from services that led to higher prices for vehicles, appliances and other durable goods.
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