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Elevated interest rates may contribute to slower gross domestic product expansion in the second half of 2024.
“Domestic growth prospects remain intact for 2024 and 2025, based on BSP staff estimates. GDP growth may decelerate in second half of 2024 due partly to positive real interest rates, following the BSP’s tightening cycle, and subsequently pick up in 2025. This outlook is consistent with the negative output gap in 2024 to 2025 amid tight financial conditions,” the BSP said.
The BSP kept the interest rates steady as a survey of external forecasters for June 2024 showed inflation expectations staying near the upper end of the target range of 2 percent to 4 percent for 2024, while those for 2025 to 2026 eased further toward the midpoint of the target range. Analysts expect within-target inflation over the policy horizon, although upside risks continue to dominate their outlook owing to supply-side pressures and potential second-round effects, the BSP said.
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