Celia Israel and Kirk Watson divided up the city's votes somewhere around Lamar Boulevard.
Unlike the maps you can see with the Travis County election results online, this one shows actual vote margins, not percentages; just as in Congress, precincts that take up a lot of land often have few city voters. The darkest boxes are where Celia Israel and Kirk Watson each beat the other by more than 200 votes. Lighter orange and green boxes saw margins of between 51 and 200 votes, and the buff-colored ones in between were within 50 votes in either direction.
The results suggest Watson fought a two-front war to hold onto westside support against Virden in his best precincts along MoPac, while keeping Israel from running up the score too resoundingly in her strong boxes. Results? The dark green boxes on the map represent a 14,500-vote surplus for Watson over Israel , but the dark orange boxes delivered a nearly 27,000-vote margin for Israel over Watson, and only 11,424 votes for Virden.
None of this forms an insurmountable gap for Watson to close by Dec. 13, since he has a lot of money to spend on voter contact and"get out the vote" efforts; his strongest boxes turn out at higher rates in most elections than do the Central and Eastside precincts where Israel romped; and there are more Virden voters up for grabs on Watson's side of town. However! Dec.
In the last open-seat mayor's race in 2014, run-off turnout was about 15%, after a general election turnout of just over 40%. Steve Adler, running on property tax relief then as Virden did this year, led Mayor Pro Tem Mike Martinez by about 7 points in the first round, then prevailed in the run-off by a 2-to-1 margin.In each of the three open-seat council districts going to run-off, there are also easy-to-spot geographic splits, cleaving north from south instead of east from west.
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