By the Department of Education’s own estimates, the Biden loan forgiveness plan will cost $305 billion over a decade. But the actual cost remains unknown. Even good faith estimates, such as the one from the Wharton School of Business that put the cost of the plan between $300 billion and $980…
that put the cost of the plan between $300 billion and $980 billion, provide a vast range. At best, that $305 billion figure the department selected may have been at the very low end of the range of credible estimates.
Even more troubling, the department’s inspector general asked KPMG to review the official estimates , and the accounting firmthat the department’s leadership “was unable to provide adequate evidential matter to support certain key assumptions used to estimate the subsidy costs.” KPMG raised particular concerns around the estimate of the “take-up rate,” stating that, “inadequate controls over the relevance and reliability of the underlying data used to develop the estimate calculations increases the risk that the financial statements could be materially misstated.” In other words, they’re guessing and they might not be doing so in good faith.
While this is pretty strong language for an accounting firm, KPMG ultimately steered clear of providing its own estimates, and instead recommended the development of a better process for coming up with more accurate estimates. Chairwoman Virginia Foxx of the Education and Workforce Committee was a bit more blunt andObviously, this is not the first time government financial estimates have come up short, including with regard to the student loan program.
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