Experts are watching computer models closely, nervous about growing flood risk
The winter of 2023 isn’t finished yet. Not by a long shot.
But this past weekend, computer models began to show its likelihood increasing from about 10% to now about 70%, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. “It could be like January where we had back-to-back-to-back atmospheric rivers,” he said. “That’s what I’m looking out for. The chance for having another sequence of atmospheric river storms where this is the one to kick it off is where the greatest risk is.”
Hoping to reduce the chances of a similar event, dam operators in recent weeks have been increasing water releases from some reservoirs, like Folsom, northeast of Sacramento, and Millerton, near Fresno, to create more space.How much rain is expected? Thursday night through Sunday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expecting 2 to 3 inches of rain in San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, with 4 to 6 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Big Sur.
They worry that a series of warm tropical storms could melt it faster than normal, triggering the kind of catastrophic flooding that was seen in 1997. Much of February was dry. But over the past two weeks, several powerful new storms have dumped more rain on urban areas from the Bay Area to Los Angeles, and smothered the Sierra Nevada in 12 feet of new snow, closing Yosemite National Park, Interstate 80, Highway 50 and even ski resorts for several days that couldn’t operate chairlifts during blizzard conditions.
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