Studies like this will be crucial in unlocking puzzles regarding intensity fluctuations in tropical cyclones.
Even as hurricane forecasting improves, intensity and rapid changes in storms are still poorly understood, but understanding them is critical for saving lives and property.
While many storm studies are limited to a portion of an ocean basin, Garner examined the North Atlantic as a whole. Using historical data from 1971 to 2020, she was able to assess intensification rates achieved by storms during a 12-, 24- or 36-hour window. More specifically, Garner finds that the average maximum intensification rates increased by nearly 29% in the 12-hour window, more than 27% at 24 hours and more than 26% in the 36-hour time frame.
This includes much of the Caribbean Sea, Atlantic waters to the west of northern Africa, and areas near the southeastern U.S. coast. While changes are perhaps most notable in the 24-hour period, they are relatively consistent across all windows. Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and co-developer of a computer program that can analyze tropical activity worldwide — the Tropycal package in the programming language Python — generally concurs with the findings.
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