The most detailed computer model run so far shows that melting ice sheets could cause the collapse of the major ocean current that warms Europe, but it's still unclear how likely this is to happen
An ocean current that flows from the tropics to the North Atlantic has a big influence on Europe’s climateIs there a serious risk of the Atlantic current that warms Europe slowing to a halt as the planet heats up? Yes, according to the most detailed computer simulation run so far – but the likelihood of this scenario is still very uncertain.
Now van Westen’s team has done the most sophisticated simulation so far, requiring a total of six months on the Netherlands’ national supercomputer, called Snellius. That was very expensive, he says. This eventually shut down the overturning circulation, causing temperatures to rise in the southern hemisphere, but plummet in Europe. For instance, in the model, London cools by 10°C on average and Bergen in Norway by 15°C . Other consequences include
However, to produce this collapse, the researchers had to run the model for 2500 years. And they had to add a huge amount of freshwater – less than in previous simulations, but still around 80 times more than is currently entering the oceanMoreover, the simulation didn’t involve any global warming. The team now plans to rerun the simulation to include it.
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