China will release its trade balance for July on Tuesday, and inflation data on Wednesday
Yield curve still points to strong recession chance, NY Fed indicator shows
Though the economic data of late suggests otherwise, market pricing still indicates the U.S. is heading for recession, according to a New York Federal Reserve gauge. The central bank compares the difference in yields between 3-month Treasurys and the 10-year note. When that curve inverts, it has been a tell-late recession sign, according to data going back to 1969.
An update Friday morning taking the yield spread at the end of July puts the recession probability in the next 12 months at 66%. The inversion at the end of the month was near 1.5 percentage points. While the recession probability is down from the peak of 70.8% in May, it still is a strong market indicator that a contraction is coming.Equity markets have been boosted by a better-than-expected earnings season and hopes for a soft landing, says Bank of America. The firm added that Chinese equities notably outperformed."Despite the declines in inflation and troughing of leading indicators, the regime model maintains its medium-term horizon bearish tone – preferring bonds to equities.
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China's July economic losses from disasters exceed January-JuneChina's direct economic losses from natural disasters surged to 41.18 billion yuan ($5.74 billion) in July, more than in January to June combined, driven by severe weather as two powerful typhoons hit the country in one month.
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Philippines says China blocked, water-cannoned boat in S. China SeaThe Philippines on Sunday accused China's coast guard of blocking and water-cannoning a Philippine military supply boat in the South China Sea, condemning the 'excessive and offensive actions' against its vessels.
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Philippines, US slam China for blocking resupply of disputed South China Sea siteThe State Department has joined the Philippines in condemning 'dangerous actions' by China's coast guard in the latest flare-up of tensions over clashing territorial claims in the South China Sea.
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Philippines, U.S. slam China for blocking resupply of disputed South China Sea siteThe State Department has joined the Philippines in condemning “dangerous actions” by China’s coast guard in the latest flare-up of tensions over clashing territorial claims in the South China Sea.
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Mega Millions jackpot rises to $1.55 billion for Tuesday's drawingJUST IN: Mega Millions jackpot climbs to an estimated $1.55 billion after no winner declared in latest drawing.
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Mega Millions jackpot rises to record $1.55 billion for Tuesday's drawingThe Mega Millions jackpot is expected to rise to $1.55 billion in the next drawing, the highest-ever pot for the lottery, topping its previous record of $1.537 Billion in October 2018. No jackpot-winning ticket was purchased with Friday night's numbers, 11, 30, 45, 52, 56 and a gold Mega Ball 20, the lottery said. The lottery game's jackpot had grown ahead of Friday's drawing to an estimated $1.35 billion.
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