While still a toss-up, Arizona is being pushed from “a reddish shade of purple to a bluish shade” because the big Phoenix metro area is 'getting bluer,' a national analyst says.
By Lauren Irwin Cronkite News WASHINGTON — Two recent reports identify Arizona as one of four or five battleground states for the 2024 election, with one analyst saying the state could be “one of the keys to the presidency.”
“Arizona is one of the handful of most interesting and most competitive states in the country now,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Both Kondik and Erin Covey, a reporter and analyst for Inside Elections, say it is too early to say if any of those states will switch in 2024, but a lot will depend on who the Republican nominee is. Covey said it may come down to who appeals the most to the state’s independent voters.
“Whether or not Arizona is a toss-up is going to be completely dependent upon who the Republican nominee is,” Noble said. “If it’s anybody but Trump, it will go Republican for sure.” Kondik said Arizona is one of a few states to trend Democratic during and after Trump’s tenure. While it is still a toss-up, states like Arizona and Georgia are being pushed from “a reddish shade of purple to a bluish shade,” he said, because “big metro areas like Phoenix and Atlanta are getting bluer.”
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