Both hurricane and winter outlooks can offer value, but have limitations worth understanding.
provided the red-alert moment on how things can pivot so rapidly. That storm, plus a host of others, coexisted after the typical mid-September seasonal peak and swiftly redirected our focus away from the relative calm. On Sept. 24, there were four named tropical systems at the same time in the Atlantic and Caribbean. It was a remarkable turnaround from earlier weeks.
The quiet-season narrative, and notably our perceptions, changed dramatically with Ian, reminding us of the dire impacts a single storm can bring, regardless of the number of storms predicted for the season. It served as an essential reminder that the value in those early hurricane season outlooks is not diminished by inaccuracies of total tallies. They provide focus on the need to be cognizant of risk.
For the winter of 2022-2023, most analyses are levered largely on the same fulcrum as the tropical-season ones —. The Pacific cool sea-surface temperature anomaly is tied to seasonal weather trends over large areas of the world. “Overall, La Niña leads to a warmer/drier winter season across the southern tier of the nation,” said Larry Brown, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Wakefield, Va., in an email interview. “The northern Plains/upper midwest have a correlation to below normal temperatures and the Pacific NW shows a signal to be wetter than average.
La Niña is favored to continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, with a 91% chance in September-November, decreasing to a 54% chance in January-March 2023. A
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