Don't look now, folks, but it might be time to root against Duke
Zion Williamson and Duke are the most popular pick in NCAA tournament pools. By Neil Greenberg Neil Greenberg Reporter analyzing advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog Email Bio Follow March 20 at 9:00 AM The Duke Blue Devils are one of the few teams that live up to the hype. Mike Krzyzewski guided his team to a record 15th ACC tournament title in 39 seasons as coach and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, the 13th in school history.
— Ball Durham March 17, 2019 As of Wednesday morning, Williamson’s fame and Krzyzewski‘s leadership have led to 38 percent of participants in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge — which had 17.3 million entrants in 2018 — choosing Duke as this year’s national champion. That makes the Blue Devils a terrible choice as the winner of your bracket.
Think about it — if Duke wins the title, you are still tied with almost half the field. Compare that to the two most popular choices last year, Virginia and Villanova , and it is easy to see how much of an advantage you get in such a large pool. Plus, a 41 percent win rate for Duke is out of line with conventional wisdom. The oddsmakers at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas have kept Duke as the favorite but lowered its odds from 2 to 1 on Sunday to 9 to 4 on Monday. William Hill also has Duke as the favorite with odds of 11 to 5. Those odds from two well-known bookmakers imply Duke has roughly a 31 percent chance to cut down the nets in 2019 — a far cry from the 41 percent the public is giving them.
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